Tony Meier - EastsideHomesBlog.com

Monday's Market Update - King County Median Price Continues to Rise!

Hey Chicken Little.... the sky has not fallen!

If you believe everything you read in the press, you would think real estate values are plummeting and all of the homes on the Eastside and Seattle are short sales or foreclosures! While the incidences of these events has definitely risen - especially in South King County, don't write the King County Real Estate Market off just yet!

The Puget Sound real estate market built inventory heavily last year which lead to the decline of the absorption rates -or- supply vs. demand. The King County absorption rates has held steady for the last 9 months at approximately 15% of the inventory going from active to pending each quarter - which translates into about 7 months of inventory. These are not great conditions, especially when looked at from the perspective of the 2004-2006 which all showed double digit gain in King County median home price. But, they are also not as terrible as some would have you believe and may mean our market is begin to bottom out.

Here are the facts: King County's median price is off from the highs of last year and the median price is off when you compare 2008 vs. 2007 month over month, but the YTD median price has risen over 1% this year. If you look at June alone, it is up 3.3% ($435,000 to $449,700) from the start of the year. That is by no means "doom and gloom"!

Here is how King County's Median single family home price shakes out...

In January we started with a median price of $435,000 - it was $429,495 in January 2007

By June our YTD median price has risen to $440,000 and the median price for the month alone was $449,700!

Does this mean the Seattle real estate market has reached the bottom? With the current absorption rates in King County, the buyer will remain in control which means real estate values will remain soft until the market returns to a more balanced position.

Also, the median price does not track house size in it's number. Every study I have seen shows while the median price remains resilient, the average price per square foot is down. So if the average 2000 s.f. home on the Eastside was selling 225 per square foot last year, it is probably selling closer to 200 per square foot this year.

So the conditions are not black and white - what should you do?

Sellers looking to cash out: Unless you are moving to an area that is more challenged and/or has more opportunities... or you need the money from your home within the next year or two, it may be best to hold on.

Buyers -and- Sellers looking to move up: If you are wanting to buy and are waiting for the bottom... you may not have much longer to wait. Remember though... you will only know when the King County market has bottomed, when it is past.

Real Estate is on sale today and it not this way often! With 20 years experience, I look upon this market and only recall one other time I have seen these type of conditions and it was when I first began my career.

If you have any questions or would like take advantage of the opportunities that exist in this market, I welcome you to contact me.

Posted By:
Tony Meier
Eastside & Seattle Realtor
EastsideHomesBlog.com
EastsideHomes.com
Seattle's Eastside Real Estate Resource
tony@eastsidehomes.com

Monday's Market Update - Eastside Condos

Eastside & Seattle Market Absorption Rates
By: Tony Meier
Eastside & Seattle Realtor

 

This week we will be looking at the Condo market absorption rates for the Eastside over the last 7 weeks. When looking at these numbers, keep this in mind:

1.       These are an average of the all price ranges in the area. Some price ranges are definitely moving faster than others! If you would like to know how things break down in a specific price range for an area, send me an email at tony@eastsidehomes.com

2.       These numbers are a result of the sales activity over the last 7 weeks when comparing the number of active listing vs. the number of pending sales to determine what the market absorption rate is for a particular area.

3.       When measuring the heat of the market, the following rules apply:

a.       12 weeks or less = Seller’s Market

b.      12-24 weeks = Balanced Market

c.       24 or more weeks = Buyer’s Market

We'll it looks like the condo market is generally favoring the buyer at this point. Most areas showed slowing as comnpared to 4 weeks ago.

Condo Only, NWMLS Area 500 (Bellevue, South of I-90) = 30.8 weeks of inventory (was 27.2 four weeks ago)

Condo Only, NWMLS Area 510 (Mercer Island) = 22.3 weeks of inventory (was 21.7 four weeks ago)

Condo Only, NWMLS Area 520 (Bellevue, West of 405) = 57.8 weeks of inventory (was 30.9 four weeks ago)

Condo Only, NWMLS Area 530 (Bellevue, East of 405) = 27.7 weeks of inventory (was 28.3 four weeks ago)

Condo Only, NWMLS Area 540 (East of Lake Sammamish) = 32.0 weeks of inventory (was 33.7 four weeks ago)

Condo Only, NWMLS Area 550 (Redmond/Carnation) = 33.3 weeks of inventory (was 22.9 four weeks ago)

Condo Only, NWMLS Area 560 (Kirkland/Bridle Trails) = 33.9 weeks of inventory (was 30 four weeks ago)

Condo Only, NWMLS Area 600 (Juanita/Woodinville) = 40.4 weeks of inventory (was 36.9 four weeks ago)

If you have any questions on this information, I welcome you to email me at tony@eastsidehomes.com

Posted By:
Tony Meier
Eastside & Seattle Realtor
425-466-1000
EastsideHomesBlog.com
EastsideHomes.com
Seattle's Eastside Real Estate Resource
tony@eastsidehomes.com

Monday's Market Update - Eastside Residential

Eastside & Seattle Market Absorption Rates
By: Tony Meier
Eastside & Seattle Realtor

This week we will be looking at the Residential market absorption rates for the Eastside over the last 7 weeks. When looking at these numbers, keep in this in mind:

1.       These are an average of the all price ranges in the area. Some price ranges are definitely moving faster than others! If you would like to know how things break down in a specific price range for an area, send me an email at tony@eastsidehomes.com

2.       These numbers are a result of the sales activity over the last 7 weeks when comparing the number of active listing vs. the number of pending sales to determine what the market absorption rate is for a particular area.

3.       When measuring the heat of the market, the following rules apply:

a.       12 weeks or less = Seller’s Market

b.      12-24 weeks = Balanced Market

c.       24 or more weeks = Buyer’s Market

Another mixed bag this week, with only slight declines or improvements. It does appear that inventory is continuing to build, with most areas showing 40+ weeks of inventory now. We usually build inventory as we move toward summer and it looks like this year will be no different!

Residential Only, NWMLS Area 500 (Bellevue, South of I-90) = 42 weeks of inventory (was 41 four weeks ago)

Residential Only, NWMLS Area 510 (Mercer Island) = 42.5 weeks of inventory (was 32.7 four weeks ago)

Residential Only, NWMLS Area 520 (Bellevue, West of 405) = 56.4 weeks of inventory (was 57.4 four weeks ago)

Residential Only, NWMLS Area 530 (Bellevue, East of 405) = 29.2 weeks of inventory (was 26.7 four weeks ago)

Residential Only, NWMLS Area 540 (East of Lake Sammamish) = 34.5 weeks of inventory (was 32 four weeks ago)

Residential Only, NWMLS Area 550 (Redmond/Carnation) = 28 weeks of inventory (was 30.7 four weeks ago)

Residential Only, NWMLS Area 560 (Kirkland/Bridle Trails) = 46.9 weeks of inventory (was 63.5 four weeks ago)

Residential Only, NWMLS Area 600 (Juanita/Woodinville) = 42.7 weeks of inventory (was 39.9 four weeks ago)

If you have any questions on this information, I welcome you to email me at tony@eastsidehomes.com

Posted By:
Tony Meier
Eastside & Seattle Realtor
EastsideHomesBlog.com
EastsideHomes.com
Seattle's Eastside Real Estate Resource
tony@eastsidehomes.com

Monday's Market Update - Seattle Condos

Eastside & Seattle Market Absorption Rates
By: Tony Meier
Eastside & Seattle Realtor

This week we will be looking at the Condo market absorption rates for the Seattle Area over the last 7 weeks. When looking at these numbers, keep this in mind:

1.       These are an average of the all price ranges in the area. Some price ranges are definitely moving faster than others! If you would like to know how things break down in a specific price range for an area, send me an email at tony@eastsidehomes.com

2.       These numbers are a result of the sales activity over the last 7 weeks when comparing the number of active listing vs. the number of pending sales to determine what the market absorption rate is for a particular area.

3.       When measuring the heat of the market, the following rules apply:

a.       12 weeks or less = Seller’s Market

b.      12-24 weeks = Balanced Market

c.       24 or more weeks = Buyer’s Market

Area 710 remains the bright spot on this chart with lots of movement in the under 300k range.  Area 140 is off across the board and has  110 weeks of inventory in the 300-399k range. Should be some opportunities there!

Condo Only, NWMLS Area 140 (West Seattle) = 43.1 weeks of inventory (was 28.2 four weeks ago)

Condo Only, NWMLS Area 380 (Central Seattle) = 25.4 weeks of inventory (was 23.2 four weeks ago)

Condo Only, NWMLS Area 385 (SODO/Beacon Hill) = 22 weeks of inventory (was 29.5 four weeks ago)

Condo Only, NWMLS Area 390 (Central Seattle) = 29.8 weeks of inventory (was 33.5 four weeks ago)

Condo Only, NWMLS Area 700 (Queen Anne/Magnolia) = 39.4 weeks of inventory (was 30.3 four weeks ago)

Condo Only, NWMLS Area 701 (Belltown, Downtown) = 36.6 weeks of inventory (was 31.2 four weeks ago)

Condo Only, NWMLS Area 705 (Ballard/Greenlake) = 28.6 weeks of inventory (was 32.4 four weeks ago)

Condo Only, NWMLS Area 710 (North Seattle) = 16.4 weeks of inventory (was 17.9 four weeks ago)

Condo Only, NWMLS Area 715 (Richmond Beach) = 30.1 weeks of inventory (was 25.8 four weeks ago)

Condo Only, NWMLS Area 720 (Lake Forest Park) = 40.4 weeks of inventory (was 34.8 four weeks ago)

If you have any questions on this information, I welcome you to email me at tony@eastsidehomes.com

Posted By:
Tony Meier
Eastside & Seattle Realtor
EastsideHomesBlog.com
EastsideHomes.com
Seattle's Eastside Real Estate Resource
tony@eastsidehomes.com

King County's Median Price Still Holding On!

The median price for residential homes in King County continues to hold steady!  In spite of “supply vs. demand” that favors a buyer in most areas and price ranges, the median price has shown modest gains this year.  Here is a break down month by month:

Month	2008 – Year to date	2007 – Year to date
January	$435,000	$429,495
February	$430,000	$429,925
March	$435,000	$439,900
April	$439,000	$448,555
May	$439,183	$450,000

This chart clearly shows we have lost some of the appreciation gained in 2007, which ended with a YTD (year to date) median price of $455,000. However the prices have not continued to drop in 2008, in fact they show a gain of almost one percent.

A one percent gain does not sound amazing when you look at the double digit gains we had in 2004 to 2006! But, it is very impressive when you consider the supply vs. demand ratio we have had for the last 8 months. This ratio has averaged 7 months of inventory for the last eight months with little movement in either direction. At these levels… the buyer is favored in negotiations, but the median prices are holding steady.  It is notable… the buyer is likely getting a larger home for their dollar this year as compared to last. Unfortunately, the MLS does not track price per square foot in its statistics, but the CMA’s (comparable market analysis) I have done this year would validate this point.

So does this mean the King County real estate market has reached its’ bottom? I am not that bold to make such a proclamation! However, I can confidently say that the sky is not falling as some would have you believe.

There is an old saying… “You will know when the bottom has come when it has passed”. This is very true and if buyers are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the bottom to come (and go) they may not have much longer to wait.

Note: The numbers above are represent all of King County. Each area and price range is at a different level of activity. If you would like to know how things are going in your specific area, I welcome you to contact me.

Posted By:
Tony Meier
Eastside and Seattle Realtor
EastsideHomesBlog.com
EastsideHomes.com
Seattle's Eastside Real Estate Resource
tony@eastsidehomes.com

Monday's Market Update - Seattle Residential

My usual statistics are unavailable this week, so we are going to look at something different. As in the past... I will use the great information from Trendgraphix. We are going to chart the Seattle Metro Residential market since February 2007. Here is the trend for homes over the last year.

This first chart shows how the inventory has climbed steadily since last year and sales have fallen. We had as much as 35% of the inventory selling in March of 2007. April 2008 only has 16% of the inventory going pending.

 

This next chart shows the average list price per month and the average sales price. The average is clearly trending down, which is the result of the supply vs. demand imbalance. Also, the difference in these numbers of nearly 150k would indicate that the lower end of the market is where the majority of sales are. 

 

This last chart shows months of supply based upon the pending sales. We have gone from a hot sellers market to one that is more balanced and trending towards a buyer favored market.

If you have any questions on this information, I welcome you to comment or email me at: tony@eastsidehomes.com

Posted By:
Tony Meier
Eastside & Seattle Realtor
425-466-1000
EastsideHomesBlog.com
EastsideHomes.com
Seattle's Eastside Real Estate Resource
tony@eastsidehomes.com

Monday's Market Update - Eastside Condos

Eastside & Seattle Market Absorption Rates
By: Tony Meier
Eastside & Seattle Realtor

 

This week's update is coming to you on Tuesday, due to the Memorial Day holiday. I was busy playing with my kids! :-) 

This week we will be looking at the Condo market absorption rates for the Eastside over the last 7 weeks. When looking at these numbers, keep this in mind:

1.       These are an average of the all price ranges in the area. Some price ranges are definitely moving faster than others! If you would like to know how things break down in a specific price range for an area, send me an email at tony@eastsidehomes.com

2.       These numbers are a result of the sales activity over the last 7 weeks when comparing the number of active listing vs. the number of pending sales to determine what the market absorption rate is for a particular area.

3.       When measuring the heat of the market, the following rules apply:

a.       12 weeks or less = Seller’s Market

b.      12-24 weeks = Balanced Market

c.       24 or more weeks = Buyer’s Market

Condo Only, NWMLS Area 500 (Bellevue, South of I-90) = 27.2 weeks of inventory

Condo Only, NWMLS Area 510 (Mercer Island) = 21.7 weeks of inventory

Condo Only, NWMLS Area 520 (Bellevue, West of 405) = 30.9 weeks of inventory

Condo Only, NWMLS Area 530 (Bellevue, East of 405) = 28.3 weeks of inventory

Condo Only, NWMLS Area 540 (East of Lake Sammamish) = 33.7 weeks of inventory

Condo Only, NWMLS Area 550 (Redmond/Carnation) = 22.9 weeks of inventory

Condo Only, NWMLS Area 560 (Kirkland/Bridle Trails) = 30 weeks of inventory

Condo Only, NWMLS Area 600 (Juanita/Woodinville) = 36.9 weeks of inventory

If you have any questions on this information, I welcome you to email me at tony@eastsidehomes.com

Posted By:
Tony Meier
Eastside & Seattle Realtor
425-466-1000
EastsideHomesBlog.com
EastsideHomes.com
Seattle's Eastside Real Estate Resource
tony@eastsidehomes.com

Monday's Market Update - Eastside Residential

Eastside & Seattle Market Absorption Rates
By: Tony Meier
Eastside & Seattle Realtor

This week we will be looking at the Residential market absorption rates for the Eastside over the last 7 weeks. When looking at these numbers, keep in this in mind:

1.       These are an average of the all price ranges in the area. Some price ranges are definitely moving faster than others! If you would like to know how things break down in a specific price range for an area, send me an email at tony@eastsidehomes.com

2.       These numbers are a result of the sales activity over the last 7 weeks when comparing the number of active listing vs. the number of pending sales to determine what the market absorption rate is for a particular area.

3.       When measuring the heat of the market, the following rules apply:

a.       12 weeks or less = Seller’s Market

b.      12-24 weeks = Balanced Market

c.       24 or more weeks = Buyer’s Market

Another mixed bag this week, with only slight declines or improvements. Area 520 showed the most improvement, but with over a year of inventory at current absorption rates, the Buyer's are still in control.

Residential Only, NWMLS Area 500 (Bellevue, South of I-90) = 41 weeks of inventory (was 43.2 four weeks ago)

Residential Only, NWMLS Area 510 (Mercer Island) = 32.7 weeks of inventory (was 26.8 four weeks ago)

Residential Only, NWMLS Area 520 (Bellevue, West of 405) = 57.4 weeks of inventory (was 79.4 four weeks ago)

Residential Only, NWMLS Area 530 (Bellevue, East of 405) = 26.7 weeks of inventory (was 23.4 four weeks ago)

Residential Only, NWMLS Area 540 (East of Lake Sammamish) = 32 weeks of inventory (was 30.9 four weeks ago)

Residential Only, NWMLS Area 550 (Redmond/Carnation) = 30.7 weeks of inventory (was 32 four weeks ago)

Residential Only, NWMLS Area 560 (Kirkland/Bridle Trails) = 63.5 weeks of inventory (was 51 four weeks ago)

Residential Only, NWMLS Area 600 (Juanita/Woodinville) = 39.9 weeks of inventory (was 35.9 four weeks ago)

If you have any questions on this information, I welcome you to email me at tony@eastsidehomes.com

Posted By:
Tony Meier
Eastside & Seattle Realtor
EastsideHomesBlog.com
EastsideHomes.com
Seattle's Eastside Real Estate Resource
tony@eastsidehomes.com

Monday's Market Update - Seattle Residential

Eastside & Seattle Market Absorption Rates
By: Tony Meier
Eastside & Seattle Realtor

This week we will be looking at the Residential market absorption rates for the Seattle Area over the last 7 weeks. It appears that Seattle is back on the mend with many of the numbers returning to a balanced market. In fact, some areas and price ranges are clearly favoring the seller!

When looking at these numbers, keep this in mind:

1.       These are an average of the all price ranges in the area. Some price ranges are definitely moving faster than others! If you would like to know how things break down in a specific price range for an area, send me an email at tony@eastsidehomes.com

2.       These numbers are a result of the sales activity over the last 7 weeks when comparing the number of active listing vs. the number of pending sales to determine what the market absorption rate is for a particular area.

3.       When measuring the heat of the market, the following rules apply:

a.       12 weeks or less = Seller’s Market

b.      12-24 weeks = Balanced Market

c.       24 or more weeks = Buyer’s Market

Another mixed week. Most areas showed declines with 380 coming up some. The bright spots still remain areas 705 & 710.

Residential Only, NWMLS Area 140 (West Seattle) = 21.4 weeks of inventory (was 19.4 four weeks ago)

Residential Only, NWMLS Area 380 (Central Seattle) = 25.2 weeks of inventory (was 30.8 four weeks ago)

Residential Only, NWMLS Area 385 (SODO/Beacon Hill) = 29.2 weeks of inventory (was 19.8 four weeks ago)

Residential Only, NWMLS Area 390 (Central Seattle) = 27.8 weeks of inventory (was 23.5 four weeks ago)

Residential Only, NWMLS Area 700 (Queen Anne/Magnolia) = 23.2 weeks of inventory (was 21.8 four weeks ago)

Residential Only, NWMLS Area 705 (Ballard/Greenlake) = 15.7 weeks of inventory (was 16.3 four weeks ago)

Residential Only, NWMLS Area 710 (North Seattle) = 14.7 weeks of inventory (was 14.7 four weeks ago)

Residential Only, NWMLS Area 715 (Richmond Beach) = 32.2 weeks of inventory (was 24.2 four weeks ago)

Residential Only, NWMLS Area 720 (Lake Forest Park) = 22.1 weeks of inventory (was 17.9 four weeks ago)

If you have any questions on this information or would like to know the strength in your area and price range, I welcome you to email me at tony@eastsidehomes.com

Posted By:
Tony Meier
Eastside & Seattle Realtor
EastsideHomesBlog.com
EastsideHomes.com
Seattle's Eastside Real Estate Resource
tony@eastsidehomes.com

Monday's Market Update - Eastside Condos

My usual stattistics are unavailable this week, so we are going to look at something different. Thanks to the great information from Trendgraphix, which we subscribe to, we are going to chart the condo market since January 2007. Here is the trend for condos over the last year.

This first chart shows how the inventory has climbed steeply since last year and sales have fallen. We  had as much as 64% of the inventory selling in March of 2007. March 2008 only has 12% of the inventory going pending.

This next chart shows the average list price per month and the average sales price. The difference in these numbers of about 100k would indicate that the lower end of the market is where the majority of sales are. 

This last chart shows months of supply based upon the pending sales. We have gone from a hot sellers market to one that is more favored towards the buyer.

While the economy remains strong in the region, the effects of the national credit market are clearly shown. Hopefully lending guideline will loosen up and allow more buyers to re-enter the market.

However, if you were thinking of investing. There has been no better time!

Posted By:
Tony Meier
Eastside & Seattle Realtor
425-466-1000
EastsideHomesBlog.com
EastsideHomes.com
Seattle's Eastside Real Estate Resource
tony@eastsidehomes.com